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|Title||Simulation Model of Change Orders and their Impact on Building Projects Performance in Gaza Strip|
The main character of the construction projects is complexity where many human and non-human factors and variables play essential roles. So, when change orders occur all projects performance strongly affected. A recent survey of professional engineers identified changes as the major cause of project failure and Gaza Strip is not exception where the main cause of delay, over budgeting, and productivity losing in Gaza Strip are due to change orders. This research discusses the change orders and their impact on projects performance in the Gaza Strip using a combination of interviews and 15 case studies. These studies encompassed 6 educational building projects, one of which was rehabilitation, 4 health building projects, two of which were rehabilitation, and, 5 residential building projects carried out in the Gaza Strip. These projects were investigated to collect the data required for in-depth study and analysis. The projects documented and analyzed were between 1996 and 2005. From the case studies and interviews, factors influencing the number of change orders in theGazastrip were determined and then the impact of change orders on cost, time, and productivity for each factor was also determined for the 15 case studies. The factors were ranked according to their occurrences and impact on projects performance to find the most important factors. A simulation model was built to model change orders occurrences and their impact on cost, time, and productivity for building projects in the Gaza Strip. Verification of the model was checked and was given 97% accuracy in forecasting increase in cost, 99% accuracy in forecasting decrease in cost, and 96% accuracy in forecasting time extension. The validity of the model was also checked firstly by interviews and then by examining a random case, where it gave 97% accuracy in forecasting increase in cost, and 98% in forecasting extension on time, which means that the simulation model can forecast the impact of change orders on project performance in the Gaza strip.
|Publisher||the islamic university|
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