Spatio -Temporal Analysis of the Dead Sea Area Using Remote Sensing and GIS-Based Model: Markov - Cellular Automata

Abstract

Understanding spatio-temporal changes is essential to many aspects of engineering, geographic and planning researches. The area of the Dead Sea surface - at the end of the fifties - was about 1000 km2. The altitude of the surface was around 350 m below sea level. Since 1978, the Dead Sea has retreated, and the sea body turned into two basins: the principal northern one that was about 631.27 km2 with a water level of about -430 m MSL (in 2010), and the shallow southern one with the Lisan Peninsula and the Lynch Straits in between, which has a sill elevation of about 400 m below the sea level. In this research fourteen satellite imageries are collected from 1972 to 2010 in addition to 2011-ASTGTM-DEM. Satellite imageries are radiometrically and atmospherically corrected. Geographic Information system and Remote Sensing techniques are used for spatio-temporal analysis in order to detect changes in the Dead Sea area, shape, water level, and volume. Dead Sea shrinks by 2.5 km2/yr while the water level decreases by 0.7 m/yr. Consequently, the volume changes by - 0.33 km3/yr. The use of Dead Sea water for the industry by both Israel and Jordan is one of the essential factors that affect area of the Dead Sea. The intensive human water consumption from the Jordan and Yarmouk Rivers for other usage are the main reasons of that shrinkage in area as well. The direction of this shrinkage is from the north, northwest and from the south direction of the northern part due to slopes of bathymetry. No shrinkage is considered from the east direction due to the same reason since the bathymetric slope is so sharp. In order to make a rational prediction of the Dead Sea shape, data is prepared for suitability map creation using Markov chain analysis and Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE). Then, Markov Cellular Automata model and spatial statistics are used in prediction and validation processes. The validation process shows a standard Kappa index of 0.9545 which means a strong relation between the model and reality. The predicted shapes of 2020, 2030 and 2040 follow the same conditions from 1984 to 2010. The predicted areas of 2020, 2030 and 2040 are 610, 591 and 574 km2 which are considered a logical extension of the trend from 1984 till 2010. So, Markov - Cellular Automata model can be used to predict closed seas as the Dead Sea.